Survival

In 2024, significant advancements in science and medicine have brought us closer to radical life extension technologies. The primary goal now must be to maintain good health long enough to benefit from these advances in anti-aging medicine, which will soon revolutionize both our healthspan and longevity.

By late 2022, life expectancy at birth had reached 89.4 years in Monaco, the highest in the world. However, 40 countries now boast life expectancies over 80, and 25 more exceed 78—significant increases over the past 15 years.

Over the last 50 years, gains in life expectancy have been more pronounced among men. From 2005-2007, men’s life expectancy at birth increased by 2.9 years, compared to 1.8 years for women. Even without major progress in anti-aging medicine, life expectancy is projected to rise by another 6.6 years for men and 5.5 years for women over the next 50 years. The gap between men and women has been narrowing. For example, in Australia, men now live an average of 82.8 years, just two years less than women, who live 84.8 years. The same trend holds in Switzerland (83.4 years for men, 85.3 years for women), a significant improvement compared to 1965 when men in Australia lived to 67.66 years and women to 74.20 years. These gains pale compared to what nanotechnology and biotechnology will achieve in the coming decades.

Dr. Aubrey de Grey, through his work with the SENS Foundation and now the Longevity Escape Velocity Foundation, has laid out a path to end age-related health decline. Despite the enormous resources Google’s Calico possesses, its progress has been relatively slow compared to biotech companies like Unity Biotech, which have made notable advancements with a fraction of the budget. This suggests that research in critical areas is where we should focus our attention for personal survival.

I do not believe we will find a true "cure" for aging in the foreseeable future. Instead, we should work from our current knowledge, which lies in understanding why the body deteriorates with age, even though we lack the ability to influence ongoing metabolic processes.

When asked how long it will take to "cure" aging, I estimate that we have a better than 60% chance of controlling it within 10 to 20 years. An actual cure, however, is likely many decades away—perhaps even towards the end of this century. The more practical approach is to focus on controlling aging and repairing accumulated damage, which should be our primary goal. Aubrey de Grey’s SENS theory and the engineering approach are the best prospects for success in the first half of this century.

Additionally, well-funded organizations like Human Longevity Inc. and Unity Biotech are making progress, showing that serious efforts are being made to combat aging and age-related illnesses. These advances may not lead to an immediate cure but can extend life significantly.

I am confident that we won’t need a complete cure for aging. Aubrey de Grey’s concept of "engineered negligible senescence" can extend life indefinitely without directly curing aging. By addressing the damage caused by aging, we can extend healthy lifespan while allowing the natural aging process to continue.

The concept is simple: Let’s say you’re 60 years old when the first intervention occurs, and this treatment repairs 75% of the accumulated damage. Ten years later, you are chronologically 70 but biologically only 45. Now, fast-forward 20 years. At the age of 80 (chronologically), you are biologically 55. At this point, another intervention is necessary because of the damage accumulated over the past two decades.

The key to this approach is that, by the time you reach 80, anti-aging medicine will have advanced significantly. The second intervention will not only repair the damage addressed by the first treatment but also the damage accumulated since then and some that couldn’t be repaired initially. After the second intervention, you will be biologically younger than you were after the first, despite aging chronologically. These treatments will need to be repeated at intervals of 15-20 years, becoming more effective each time.

This is the core of Aubrey de Grey’s theory and other rejuvenation-based approaches. It’s not about curing aging outright but about using regular interventions to extend life indefinitely. By focusing on repairing damage rather than slowing the aging process, we can achieve radical life extension.

I believe we are well on our way, especially in areas like gene therapy, stem cell therapies, tissue engineering, and regenerative medicine. Progress depends on funding and continued interest, but there is growing support from both scientists and the general public.

The two years from December 2020 to August 2024 saw remarkable progress in anti-aging research. Below are eight notable examples and also a summary of the current areas of rapid progress.

1. Extending the Life of the Immune System:
   New Mechanism Extends Life of Immune System
   Anti-Aging Mechanism Discovery
2. Telomere Elongation:
   Significant Advances in Telomere Research
3. Senescent Cell Removal:
   Vaccine for Aging Eliminates Senescent Cells
   Research on Senescent Cells
4. Progress in First-Generation Anti-Aging Pharmaceuticals:
   Can You Fight Aging?
5. CRISPR-cas9:
   CRISPR-Based Gene Therapy for Anti-Aging
6. NMN and Nicotinamide Riboside:
   Do NR and NMN Supplements Work?

Here are some of the most promising developments:

Researchers from Harvard, MIT, and the University of Maine have developed a chemical approach to reverse aging at the cellular level. This breakthrough could lead to whole-body rejuvenation and make anti-aging treatments more accessible, avoiding the limitations of gene therapy. Human clinical trials are being planned after successful results in animal studies, which included the reversal of blindness in monkeys (Source: Nature, Phys.org).

Originally discovered as an immunosuppressant, rapamycin is now gaining attention for its potential anti-aging effects. Studies on mice have shown significant lifespan extension and improvements in heart and brain health. Current research is investigating its ability to delay age-related diseases such as Alzheimer’s. While some individuals are already self-dosing, formal clinical trials are still in the early stages (Source: MedXpress, Northeastern Global News).

Senolytic drugs target and eliminate senescent cells, which are dysfunctional cells that contribute to aging and chronic disease. Removing these cells has shown promise in extending healthy lifespan in animal studies, and clinical trials are currently underway to assess their effectiveness in humans (Source: Nature).

Researchers at Stanford University have made significant progress in telomere elongation, a process that could reverse aging by lengthening the protective caps at the ends of chromosomes. This advancement holds potential for treating age-related diseases and extending lifespan (Source: Nature).

These breakthroughs, alongside ongoing research into artificial intelligence’s role in discovering new anti-aging compounds, suggest that the field of anti-aging medicine is rapidly advancing toward practical applications. While a complete cure for aging remains elusive, these advances provide hope for significantly extending healthy human life (Source: Nature, Phys.org, MedXpress).

The aging baby boomer population is creating a significant strain on healthcare systems, which underscores the importance of rejuvenative medicine. As these systems face overwhelming demand in the coming decades, the need for interventions that extend both lifespan and healthspan becomes critical.

I believe that five key technologies will ultimately lead to radical life extension during this century: advanced biotechnology, nanotechnology, advanced robotics, gene therapy, and robust artificial intelligence (AI). Each of these fields has the potential to drastically extend life, either individually or in combination. If advancements in one or more of these areas occur as expected, we could see decisive control over the aging process within 10 to 20 years.

In conclusion, the war on aging is not only worthwhile but also inevitable. Conquering aging could save 100,000 lives each day, as two-thirds of all daily deaths are due to aging. With continued research, dedication, and funding, we are on track to turn aging into a manageable, chronic condition within the next 10 to 20 years.